Although the pace slowed a bit in the days that followed the Sept. 20 start of early voting, the number of people in Richmond and its suburbs casting early ballots is running ahead of the 2020 election: 26,385 versus 24,521.

That’s in line with the statewide trend, with 179,941 early ballots cast versus 168,184 in 2020.

All told, more than 2.8 million Virginians voted early in 2020, either in person or by mail.

“We had more than 1,000 on the first day, a line out the door and up the block … it was more than we’d seen on day one, more like the last day when people want to be sure to vote,” said Keith Balmer, Richmond’s voter registrar.

Richmond’s first day total this year was 1,037 compared with 688 in 2020. The pace has slackened since for the first five days, Richmond’s total early ballots are down from 2020, at 2,806 versus 3,576.

But the day one rush is Balmer’s big hint about what’s going on.

“There’s just a lot of enthusiasm,” he said.

Busy Election Day expected

Despite the rush, he and other local election officials still expect a busy Election Day on Nov. 5. Balmer expects this year will match what he’s seen in 2020 and the elections since: about 30% of total votes cast will be early votes.

In Henrico County, the pace slowed modestly after a nearly 1,000-voter jump on day one, but early voting so far still running ahead of 2020: 11,248 versus 11,064.

Enthusiasm is one big reason, said registrar Mark J. Coakley.

But he said, 2020 was the first time people could vote so early and in person without invoking an authorized excuse and in elections. Since then, voters have grown used to the idea that they could.

“I think it’s understanding that they can choose when to vote. They like the convenience,” he said.

In Chesterfield County, a big first day jump is continuing. On day one, nearly 1,000 more voters showed up. Through the next five days, even more did: the count as of Thursday was 9,508 versus 6,876 at the same time in 2020. Missy Vera, Chesterfield’s registrar and director of elections, attributes this to a combination of factors:

“We are not in a pandemic, population growth, convenience, shorter lines and wait time, stress-free experience, ease of the process, familiarity, motivation, passion, worry about the potential for unrest on election day and bad actors attempting to sow discord,” she said in an email.

She thinks relocating the place where early voters can cast ballots from the registrar’s office to the county’s central library helps, since it means more parking and a larger area for people to vote.

Chesterfield plans to open five additional satellite locations two weeks before Election Day, and since voters can vote at any one no matter what part of the county they live in, “more people can vote on the way to the grocery, out to eat, shopping, on the way to/from work,” she said.

“Though Election Day is a holiday, most people have to coordinate their day around voting which may be inconvenient.”

Former President Donald Trump called into a tele-rally last Sunday, urging Virginians to vote early. A day later, he urged early voting in Pennsylvania but told a rally there that the 45-day window for early voting is “stupid,” echoing his earlier stands that early voting allowed for fraud.

Turnout in the Richmond area exceeds state average

Despite the mixed signals, early voting turnout has been heavy in Virginia’s strongly Republican counties of Southside Virginia and the Shenandoah Valley. It lags in vote-rich and Democratic-leaning Northern Virginia. Early voting turnout in the Shenandoah Valley and Southside Virginia are running ahead of the state average: 46 per 1,000 voters in the valley, 40 per 1,000 across Southside, compared with a state average of just under 38.

Turnout in the Richmond area exceeds the state average, at 39 per 1,000 and turnout matches the state average in Southwest Virginia but lags in the state’s most populous areas: strongly Democratic Northern Virginia, at 25 per 1,000, and Hampton Roads with its mix of Democratic leaning cities and Republican suburbs, at 32.

“Early voting is way up in the Republican parts of Virginia, and down in much of Democratic Virginia,” said Ed Lynch, chairman of the political science department at Hollins University. But while early voting is a reliable sign of enthusiasm, “I’m cautious about reading too much into these numbers,” he said.

“Trump actively discouraged early voting by his supporters in 2020, so it was almost inevitable that early voting would be way up in areas where it was depressed four years ago,” Lynch said.

Democrats note that under state law the party of the sitting governor has a majority on all local electoral boards. Democrat Ralph Northam was governor in 2020 and Republican Glenn Youngkin in 2024.

Some local boards in Democratic-leaning localities have reduced the number of places to cast early ballots which may be a factor.

Meanwhile, a 20,000-strong contingent of volunteers knocking doors is active across the state, including in GOP-leaning areas, convincing people to come out early and vote, said Susan Swecker, state party chair.

As a native of Blue Grass Valley in western Virginia’s Highland County, Swecker notes that even in the most Republican-leaning counties, there are still voters who cast ballots for Democrats.