America is no longer a white people’s country, says ‘Nostradamus of US Elections’ Allan Lichtman
Renowned US historian and political analyst Allan Lichtman, who has accurately predicted the outcome of numerous presidential elections, has forecasted a historic win for Kamala Harris in the 2024 US Presidential Election. Using his 13 “keys” model, Lichtman …
Harris’s Position: A Clear Path or a Tough Battle?
Lichtman’s prediction, however, doesn’t imply that Harris will have an easy path to victory. While his model suggests a Harris win, many national polls still show the race within the margin of error, making it difficult to predict a definitive outcome. Lichtman acknowledged this uncertainty but emphasized the strengths of his model: “We’re no longer a white person’s country,” he said during his interview with Times Now Digital. He highlighted the shifting demographics of the US, which he believes will play a significant role in the upcoming election.
Lichtman’s 13 Keys: How They Predict Elections
Lichtman’s prediction model, created with Russian seismologist Vladimir Keilis-Borok, is based on 13 “keys” that assess the political and economic climate. The model is simple in principle: if six or more of the keys go against the party in power, that party is likely to lose. The keys include factors like incumbency, foreign and domestic policy successes, economic indicators, and social unrest.
Lichtman believes that for the 2024 race, the keys favor Harris. “None of these ephemeral events, not the debate, not the purported attempted assassination, not JD Vance saying he made up a story about immigrants eating cats and dogs … None of that changes the fundamentals of the election. So none of it changes my prediction,” he told USA Today.
Swift’s Endorsement of Harris
Kamala Harris’s 2024 campaign also received a major endorsement from pop icon Taylor Swift. Swift formally backed Harris shortly after the vice president’s debate with Donald Trump, calling her a “steady-handed, gifted leader.” While celebrity endorsements like this don’t affect Lichtman’s 13 keys model, they can shape public perception and potentially influence voter turnout.
Harris’s Unique Path to the Nomination
Lichtman explained that Harris’s path to becoming the Democratic nominee was another factor working in her favor. She did not face a significant primary contest, which often weakens a candidate. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s decision to drop out of the race also removed a potential third-party candidate that could have disrupted the election.
According to Lichtman, other factors, such as the Democrats not facing “sustained social unrest,” contribute to Harris’s advantage. While pro-Palestinian protests over Gaza have rocked parts of the country, Lichtman argued they don’t meet the threshold for his “social unrest” key. This specific key was crucial in some past elections but is not a major factor this time around.
Why Lichtman’s Predictions Matter
Lichtman’s political predictions have consistently drawn national attention because of their accuracy. Since he began making them in 1982, Lichtman has correctly predicted the outcome of almost every US presidential race, with the exception of the 2000 contest between Al Gore and George W. Bush, which was ultimately decided by the Supreme Court. His predictions rely heavily on historical and political patterns, which many analysts find difficult to argue with.
In discussing his prediction for 2024, Lichtman noted the unprecedented nature of the election: “Maybe because of how high stakes this election is, and how extraordinary this election is: The sitting president stepping down right before the convention, the challenging candidate convicted of 34 felonies,” he told USA Today. He added, “This has been an avalanche.”
Who is Allan Lichtman
Lichtman’s involvement in politics extends beyond his predictions. He is a historian and professor at American University, where he has spent years studying US politics and elections. His first foray into political forecasting came in 1982, when he predicted that Ronald Reagan would win re-election. Since then, his model has correctly forecasted the victories of Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump, among others.
His predictions have not always been met with unanimous praise. Lichtman has faced criticism from political analysts and forecasters who argue that his “keys” are too subjective. He defends his method by stating that “we’re dealing with human beings. Human beings make judgments all the time.” Over time, however, Lichtman’s predictions have earned him respect, even from his critics, due to his high accuracy rate.
Why do political predictions work?
Reflecting on why his predictions draw so much attention, Lichtman noted society’s desire for instant answers. “We live in a society of instant gratification. That’s part of it,” he explained to USA Today. He also compared political forecasting to predictions in sports and entertainment, saying, “It’s not just politics. Look at sports. Sports talk radio is constantly giving you predictions about what’s going to happen in upcoming games. It’s entertainment as well.”
As the US heads toward the 2024 election, Lichtman’s prediction of Kamala Harris’s victory has captured the attention of political observers. While national polls remain close, Lichtman’s “13 keys” suggest that Harris is on track to win. With her unique candidacy and support from figures like Taylor Swift, Harris may indeed make history as the first Asian American and Black woman president of the United States. For now, the world waits to see if Lichtman’s prediction will once again prove accurate.
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Source: The Times of India